Steve Beeler

You have a goal…I have a way to get you there.

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Lake Michigan Water Levels

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Lake Michigan shore line

Record high Lake Michigan water levels and dune erosion have been big concerns along the “north coast” in recent years.  As beaches disappeared under the rising water, homes near the shoreline were threatened.

Barge with crane on Lake Michigan

Property owners resorted to armoring the coastline with huge boulders to dissipate wave energy.  In many cases, cranes on barges were required to place the boulders.

I finally got around to doing a statistical analysis on Lake Michigan water levels using data from the United States Army Corps of Engineers.  For years, control charts have been in my operations engineering toolkit.  Why not apply statistical process control to a natural phenomenon?

An X-bar & R chart is commonly used to measure the magnitude of common cause (random) variation and to assess statistical stability (constant probabilities).  For a sample plan, I used one data point per year in subgroups of five.  That is, each data point on the X-bar chart is an average of five years and each data point on the range chart is the difference between the highest and lowest value in that five-year period.  With 103 years of data (1918 to 1921), this sample plan provided twenty data points, the minimum required to calculate control limits.

Control chart of Lake Michigan water levels

The range chart (bottom) is in control.  All points are within the control limits and there are no trends.  This means the magnitude of year-to-year water level variation has been constant over the last 100+ years.

On the other hand, the X-bar chart (top) does not exhibit statistical control.  While it is mean centered with no trends, there are multiple points (4 above and 6 below) outside the control limits.  This suggests that the five-year sample plan has underestimated the range.  In other words, the within subgroup variation did not entirely capture the common cause (that is, random) variation in Lake Michigan water levels.

In retrospect, this is not surprising.  While 103 years seems like such a long time, it is not even an instant from a geologist’s perspective.  A sample plan with a longer duration appears to be called for but then there would not be enough subgroups to calculate control limits.

Given that the range chart is stable, I suspect that the X-bar chart (i.e., average water levels) would be too if we had data sampled over a sufficiently long period of time.

Others are interested in the Great Lakes.  Enough, apparently, to warrant a scientific publication, the Journal of Great Lakes Research.  In it, I found an abstract that supports my hypothesis of stable Lake Michigan water levels: “Historical Variation of Water Levels in Lakes Erie and Michigan-Huron” by Craig T. Bishop.

From this abstract I learned that the earliest “reliable” Great Lakes water level data were recorded in 1819.  From historical and archeological evidence, Bishop concludes that “… over at least the last 1,800 years, climate-related variations in maximum mean annual water levels have probably not exceeded those measured on Lakes Erie and Michigan-Huron since A.D. 1819.”

That sounds like Lake Michigan water levels have been stable for a long time.  In 2022, the water is down from record levels and beaches are reappearing.  The spectacular sunsets never left.

Lake Michigan sunset

If you would like to perform your own statistical analysis on Great Lakes water levels, click HERE for a link to the United States Army Corps of Engineers data set.

A Deeper Labor Pool

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A Deep Labor Pool

In today’s post COVID economy, labor is in short supply. Here’s an old-school manufacturing best practice that can be used to develop a deeper labor pool.

Way back in the day, I had a production management position at Louisville Assembly Plant during the initial Explorer launch. The launch was hugely successful. Production quickly ramped up to 87 trucks an hour (that’s one off the line every 41 seconds!) and build quality was excellent…off-line repair bays were mostly empty.

A big key to that success was labor versatility. Having trained operators on every job every day just didn’t happen. Training to develop a deeper labor pool was a priority.

A simple tool was used to manage training: the versatility chart. Each production supervisor had one for his or her zone.  Down the left side of the chart were all the employees and across the top were all the jobs. If an employee was trained on a job, a “1” was entered in that cell. Across the bottom of the chart were the total number of employees who were trained on that job.

Conceptual example of a versatility chart

Ideally, each job was three deep. That is, there were three trained employees for every position on the line.  Versatility gaps became cross-training priorities.

The more jobs your people know, the deeper your labor pool. This simple concept applies outside of manufacturing.

In baseball, rosters are limited by rule. Managers need flexibility to give stars a day off and to make strategic moves in the late innings of close games. Players who can play multiple positions are essential for a deep bench.

In business, people are limited by budgets and, more recently, by labor constraints. Managers need flexibility for any number of reasons: vacations, illnesses, seasonality, etc. Cross-training develops flexibility without adding staff.

So whatever your situation, consider cross-training to develop a deeper labor pool.

Thirty years later, I still use best practices from the Explorer launch in my day job as a Professional Engineer.  Click HERE to visit my Operations Engineering page.

 

Race Trailer 5S

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5S is not just for manufacturing.  Here’s an example from motorsports…race trailer 5S.  With a little organization, everything needed for a weekend of club racing can be squeezed into a small trailer.

As you might expect from its name, 5S is a five-step process with roots in lean thinking and the Toyota Production System.  5S is a pathway to a clean, uncluttered, organized workplace reducing waste and improving productivity:

1) Sort                             Get rid of what is not needed
2) Set In Order              Organize by neatly arranging and labeling
3) Shine                          Clean
4) Standardize               Schedule regular cleaning, organizing, and ordering
5) Sustain                       Make the first four steps a habit

My Lola T-540 Formula Ford filled up the floor of my old 12-1/2 x 6 trailer.  Packed in around the car were an auxiliary battery, an air bottle, a fire extinguisher, a folding table, fuel jugs, tool boxes, chassis stands, and ramp extensions.

The trick to making such a small trailer work was to fully utilize the space above and below the car.  Above you would find mounted tires, spare parts totes, noses, a nose frame, a quick jack, a battery charger, drain pans, funnels, lawn chairs, and a big duffel bag with shelter panels.  Below were the poles for the shelter.

New race trailer at Indy

While a beautiful example of 5S, the many loading and unloading sequence constraints were getting old.  So after 20+ years of faithful service, I retired my minimalist trailer for a new 16 x 7 aluminum V-nose from R&R Trailers …but not it’s race trailer 5S methods.

Race Trailer 5S

With a little more floor space, my new trailer is much more efficient to load and unload.  As before, the space above the car is fully utilized.  Spare parts tote capacity has been doubled.  Nothing is located on the floor around the car, a huge plus.  Loading and unloading sequence constraints are a thing of the past.

Race Trailer 5S

The shelter poles are now carried in a tray above the car, a welcome ergonomic improvement.  Spare tires are again carried in a rack across the back of the trailer.  The E-track also secures flat items like tables against the walls of the trailer.

trailer shelves

I built a small workbench and two shelves into the nose of trailer.  The workbench is drilled for a vise and a small arbor press, a significant functional upgrade.  A helmet shelf organizes my driving gear between sessions.

Race trailer door flap and extension

To eliminate the need for long, heavy ramp extensions, I ordered the trailer with a beavertail and designed a custom ramp door flap.  These short structural foam blocks from Race Ramps weigh only two pounds each!  What a joy to just roll the car on and off the trailer.

Just as before, everything still has a place.  Without the sequence constraints, I can load and unload in just over an hour.  When something is needed at the track, I know exactly where it is.

The so what of race trailer 5S?  Less is still more but sometimes a little more goes a long way.  My old trailer, while loved and admired, was just a little too small.

There are many parallels between motorsports and manufacturing.  While there is much good to be said about a small factory footprint, just don’t get too carried away.  People and materials need a little room to move around.

For more on race trailers, click HERE for my blog on trailer and tow vehicles.

Automation with Labor Constraints

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Automation with Labor Constraints

The financial justification for automation with labor constraints now has an additional component: contribution margin.  Historically, automation investments have been primarily justified by reducing people.  Retiring baby boomers and COVID-19 have created labor shortages.  Here’s the new math:

Automation is a broad term for any technology that reduces human input.  While the terminology may be relatively new (believed to be circa 1940’s from the auto industry), the concept is hundreds of years old.  Water powered spinning mills from the late 1700’s are early examples.  In today’s world, automation is everywhere from the robots that weld cars to the ERP systems that manage supply chains.

Labor savings have been the primary driver for automation.  Other benefits can also be considered: safety, quality, scrap, energy, and more recently, flexibility.  Return on investment (ROI) is determined by dividing total savings by the cost of the project.  If the ROI is sufficient, the automation investment can move forward.

But what if you can’t find enough people?

In a client’s foundry, I noticed robots are now de-flashing large castings.  This is hot, dirty, nasty work that few want any part of.  There was significant turnover and the operation was always undermanned.  While labor savings alone could not justify the automation, lost contribution margin from production shortfalls more than made up the difference.

This suggests a new ROI math for automation with labor constraints.

Add lost contribution margin to the numerator in the ROI calculation.  How much money are you not making because you can’t find enough people?  If labor is limiting output, then lost contribution margin is a quantifiable benefit of an automation investment.

This new ROI math is not just for manufacturing.  It also applies to business processes like the sales funnel.  That CRM module may not save many heads today, but will it allow the company to grow without adding hard to find sales professionals tomorrow?

A word of caution.  The new automation ROI math is somewhat subjective and, therefore, the possibility of mischief exists.  Labor must truly be a long-term constraint limiting output.  Other options to attract and retain employees (wages, benefits, working conditions) must be considered.

An understanding of constraints is essential.  Goldratt’s The Goal is the definitive primer on systemic thinking and Theory of Constraints.  This new math is a logical extension of the Goldratt 5-Step throughput improvement model when the availability of labor is the constraint.

Consider hard automation as first step.  Simple examples of hard automation are all around us.  In manufacturing, these include tables with multiple drilling fixtures and conveyors or slides between operations.  That Excel macro generating the monthly sales report is another example of hard automation.

So that’s the new math.  Adding lost contribution margin to your ROI calculation is the key to finding the best automation projects and growing your business in a labor constrained world.

 

McGuffins

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Alfred Hitchcock collage in a blog post about using McGuffins to build out your network

My business has recovered after the very slow year of COVID-19. Most of the project management and operations engineering work that I do is through a fractional leadership model so relationships are of utmost importance. I used McGuffins to keep my network alive during the lockdowns. Here’s how this networking method works:

A McGuffin is a term attributed to Alfred Hitchcock. There must be a reason for a character to enter a scene. For a maid, it might be a tray of dishes to pick up.

In networking, a McGuffin is a reason to be in somebody’s in-box. Collect interesting articles in your field of work. Type up your notes from a conference or webinar. Better yet, blog or write LinkedIn posts. Build out an inventory of relevant content to share with your network.

Rotate your inventory of McGuffins regularly. Most McGuffins have a short shelf life although some topics are more evergreen than others.

McGuffins often can be recycled or repurposed. This blog is an expansion (embellishment?) of a LinkedIn post. In that post, I predicted that the content would eventually end up in a blog on my website…and here it is!

Send McGuffins out to your network at a respectful frequency. Your contacts may or may not respond every time but you will be building professional relationships.

Here are three examples of effective McGuffins:

Hot Topic

In October of 2008, I attended an Association for Corporate Growth luncheon in New York. Of course, I took good notes and organized them in an easy-to-read outline format. In the dark time after the credit crunch, these topics were of great interest to the financial types in my network. This trip was booked months in advance…I got lucky!

Steve Beeler's ACG New York conference notes example of using McGuffins

Evergreen Content

This McGuffin is unusual in that it seems to have an unlimited shelf life. Jon Gertner wrote a prescient article in the New York Times on clean tech commercialization hurdles. Thirteen years later, these hurdles remain so the McGuffin is still relevant. I continue to share this well written article with my network. If you are interested, “Capitalism to the Rescue” is still a good read. Here is the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/magazine/05Green-t.html

Famous Speaker

Years ago, I attended an MIT alumni event and the speaker was the prominent and outspoken economist Lester Thurow! Professor Thurow did not disappoint with his thought provoking perspectives on China, economic growth, and global warming. These notes were a welcome McGuffin.

Steve Beeler's MIT Club notes example of using McGuffins

Original Content

Original content is still the best. It is hard to pick my favorite blog post but the one that I share most often is on applying two manufacturing concepts, Theory of Constraints and Lean Thinking, to the sales funnel. Who doesn’t want to convert more leads into more money faster?  Click HERE for the rest of that story.

Sales Funnel

I did not invent the McGuffin. I learned of the technique in “Rain Making” by Ford Harding.  I have had this book on my bookshelf for 25+ years and it has taught me much of what I know about building a network and developing business relationships.

Steve Beeler's book shelf

And if you are wondering, yes, this blog is a McGuffin.  🙂