Blog

Ice Racing

January 29, 2021 by stevebeeler

My annual Minnesota ice racing adventure is trip into a parallel universe. A front-wheel drive modified street car with studded tires on ice drives nothing like a Formula Ford with slicks on pavement. Inside out, upside down. For one weekend, I must relearn how to drive a race car.

Tire characteristics explain most of the difference (see chart below). On pavement, a racing slick’s cornering force increases linearly with slip angle before a soft peak at about 6 degrees. A studded ice racing tire generates far less cornering force and, because of stud geometry, builds up slowly to a relatively sharp peak…at 30 degrees!

On ice, straight line stability is frighteningly absent. Since ice racing tires don’t generate much cornering force at low slip angles, the back of the car wanders around at yaw angles that scream “crash” in my pavement racer head. This feedback loop must be turned off. It usually takes a couple of sessions to turn the scream down to a whisper.

A “Scandinavian flick” initiates the corner sequence. On approach, the car is briefly steered away from the turn before simultaneously braking and turning into the corner. In combination, the weight transfer and pendulum effect quickly rotate the car to that magic 30 degree slip angle.

On a short corner, the Scandinavian flick is an easy technique to master. Slide in and squirt off with snow flying. Beautiful.

ice racing local aces vs visiting tourise — Aces…and a tourist

Long corners separate the local ice racing aces from visiting tourists like me. The drag from the sliding rear tires can overslow the car. What follows is a futile series of understeering wobbles. Not fast and not pretty.

The studs carve up the ice and snow collects on the outside of the turns. This “cushion” of snow can be used to turn the car…a very clever solution to the long turn problem. But if you jump the cushion the snow will pull you right into the larger snow banks that line the course. Ouch!

ice racing hard ice — Perfect conditions…hard ice and a soft cushion

In ice racing, the track is changing constantly. Ideal conditions for ice racing are cloudy and 20 degrees F. The studs grip the ice and the cushion is snowy, soft, and friendly. Below zero F, the ice becomes too hard for the studs. If it is a sunny day around freezing, the cushion will be slushy, heavy, and eager to punish the smallest misstep.

ice racing soft ice — Soft ice with a heavy cushion and standing water

Late in the season, the cushion can melt forming huge puddles around the course. These “sippi holes” are treacherous. The best way drive through them is as straight as possible. Otherwise, the standing water will almost bring a car to a complete stop. Here’s a 30 second sippi hole sampler…try not to flinch!

The great Danny Ongais has a simple driving philosophy: you are only going fast when going forward. The “Flyin’ Hawaiian” would do just fine out on the ice.

For a more complete ice racing experience, here are links to two of my YouTube videos:

Rush Lake 2018

Pokegama Lake 2019

Visit the International Ice Racing Association (IIRA) website for schedules, rules, and more on this wacky form of motorsport.

Capacity Expansion

November 4, 2020 by stevebeeler

I am providing fractional leadership on a capacity expansion project. What are the key deliverables in the initial workplan?

Capacity Expansion

The project is likely to have a 12 to 18 month timeline. Therefore, it is essential to build a solid foundation with basic project management tools: a project plan, a Gantt chart, and a punch list. For a capacity expansion project, there are a few additional early deliverables.

Project Plan

A project blueprint to fully define what must be accomplished is an absolute requirement. What are the must haves and nice to haves? What are the strategic considerations? Who is on the project team? What are the success metrics? What are the volume and mix forecasts? When must the added capacity come on-stream? What is the investment budget?

I like to outline my project plans in Word. Outlines are fast. 🙂

Current State Analysis

In addition to adding capacity, it would be a great thing to improve operationally. A current state analysis will find waste reduction opportunities that can be incorporated into the capacity expansion. The two primary analysis tools are process maps and spaghetti diagrams.

Capacity Model

Future demand is uncertain. How do machine and labor hours scale across volume and product mix scenarios? What is the best location for the production constraint?

capacity model

These clearly are very important questions. Building a capacity model is another essential step towards a robust capacity plan…and a successful capacity expansion. Now before the first shovel is in the ground is the time to properly size machines and strategically locate the production constraint.

Blue Sky Plant Layout

What does the ideal plant look like? It is far too early for a detailed CAD drawing but not too soon to be thinking about orientation and location of major plant elements: receiving, production departments, maintenance, shipping, etc. If there are “monuments” that must be worked around, now is a great time to know.

The blue sky plant layout should be covered in notes. What are the assumptions behind this “ideal” plant? Use it to capture process improvement and automation opportunities and any other operational changes to reduce incremental headcount.

Resource / Skills Gaps

As the scope of the capacity expansion begins to come into focus, assess skills and resources. What gaps need to be filled?

Most likely there will be a need for fractional leadership to manage the capacity expansion work bubble. If there is new technology in the blue sky plant layout, it will take time to get the organization ready for it.

Milestones and Deliverables

Big projects benefit from careful design. Pull decisions and “risky” tasks (anything requiring an invention, regulatory approvals, etc) as far forward as possible. Establish milestone reviews with defined deliverables to keep things moving forward. Ideally, the second half of the project will be all about execution.

Gantt Chart

A Gantt chart is a picture of the project. What are the key events? What independent activities can be done in parallel? What dependent activities must be done in sequence? When are key events due?

Punch List

Right from the start of the initial workplan, there will be a growing list of assignments across the organization. A punch list captures assignments, due dates, and outcomes.

capacity expansion

In total, these initial actions will deliver a solid project plan and will prevent many headaches going forward. For more on the basic project management tools (including how to build a Gantt chart and set up a punch list), click HERE.

Managing projects, big and small, is a big part of my day job as a Professional Engineer. Visit my Project Management page for methods and case studies.

Steve Beeler on forklift

Supply Chain Risk

May 4, 2020 by stevebeeler

Supply Chain Risk

Supply chain risk is readily evident with COVID-19 related plant shutdowns across the country and across the globe. Outsourcing and off-shoring have increased the length of supply chains. Lean Manufacturing has reduced inventories. Just-In-Time / Just-In-Sequence deliveries leave little time for the unexpected. Here is a simple method to assess supply chain risk.

The method is based on the work of Professor David Simichi-Levi of MIT’s Sloan School of Business. While his risk exposure model was developed in the context of global manufacturers with complex networks of suppliers, the concepts are applicable to domestic manufacturers with a single tier of suppliers.

The supply chain risk analysis starts with three basic questions:

(1) How many days will it take a supplier to re-fill the supply chain after a disruption? In the Simichi-Levi model, this factor is Time to Recover (TTR). TTR is driven by the length of the supply chain and on availability of alternative sources.

(2) How many days can production continue without deliveries from that supplier? This is Time to Survive (TTS). TTS is strongly dependent on inventory.

(3) What are the operational and financial costs per day of while waiting for deliveries from that supplier? This is Performance Impact (PI).

The key to the model is the difference between Time to Recover and Time to Survive. If TTR is less than TTS, the supply chain will be re-filled without losing production. If TTR is greater than TTS, then the supply chain will run dry and production will be lost. If TTR and TTS are approximately equal, a supplier disruption can be managed through expediting.

This bubble chart is a visualization of supply chain risk, with the size of the bubble proportional to supplier spend.

Supply Chain Risk Bubble Chart

There is no risk of a production loss due to a disruption at Supplier C. Even with the largest spend, Supplier A is not at risk for a production loss. Through expediting, the risk of a Supplier E can be mitigated. Supplier B is low risk but with the greatest financial pain. The greatest risk for a production loss is Supplier D, even with the lowest spend.

No one knows how and for how long COVID-19 will be disrupting global and domestic supply chains. Regional peaks and multiple waves could lead to repeated closures and re-openings at key suppliers. This supply chain risk analysis can, at least qualitatively, identify your highest risk suppliers. Actions taken now can reduce risk and minimize the effects on operational and financial performance.

Professor Simichi-Levi has written extensively on supply chains and operations. For more on these topics, his most recent book “Operations Rules: Delivering Customer Value through Flexible Operations” is available through Amazon.

To adapt your business to today’s new operational challenges, click HERE for a post COVID-19 toolkit rolled up from six of my blog posts.

Great Mementos

April 29, 2020 by stevebeeler

Shelter in place is providing time for many projects that would not get done otherwise. While decluttering, I found some great mementos. Not just souvenirs, mementos tell a story. Here are four COVID-19 decluttering favorites:

Mementos Steve Beeler with Dr Deming circa 1989

During the late 80’s, Ford (and the rest of the global auto industry) was desperately trying to catch the Japanese on quality. Part of that effort was to put problem solving resources into assembly plants.

I was on one of the plant quality teams, assigned to Louisville Assembly Plant. We received extensive training in statistical methods: SPC, DOE, etc. During a training off-site at the Dearborn Inn, W. Edwards Deming stopped by for a visit. Yes, that Dr. Deming.

After an impromptu talk, photos were taken. I am just behind Dr. Deming’s right shoulder. On his right are David Kho and Steve Redding. To Dr. Deming’s left are Ben Monhollen and Jim Dottavio. I think that is Dave Johnson at the left edge of the photo.

Mementos Steve Beeler LAP Process Capability Reviewe circa 1991

The next two mementos came from Q1. Ford’s Q1 quality award was a well-conceived program to “stretch” plants to improve quality methods and systems. A major Q1 stretch was to demonstrate process capability on (I think) 50 significant characteristics. An SC was something important to our customers: dirt in paint, door efforts, box-to-cab fits. Voice of the customer.

All SC’s were documented with flow charts, fishbone diagrams, control plans, reaction plans, and control charts on SPC boards near the production operation. The task was to first achieve statistical control and then reduce variation. The higher the Cp/Cpk, the more points toward Q1.

Here’s a photo of the Brakes SPC board during Louisville Assembly Plant’s process capability review. The SC’s would have been brake pedal travel and parking brake pedal effort.

I am just right of center in the red tie. John Coleman is behind me. It’s Lanny Vincent in the short sleeve shirt looking in. I think that is Vera Linnansalo to his left. It looks like Steve Redding in the light blue shirt in the back with Stu Kendrick mostly hidden behind him.

Mementos Steve Beeler LAP Ranger Box-to-Cab Fit circa 1990

Here’s a summary sheet from the Louisville Q1 Process Capability Review. This SC, Ranger Box-to-Cab Margin Left Side, earned 13 points towards Q1 with a Cp/Cpk of 1.35/1.28. In the background of the image, you can see the Ford Blue SPC board.

I don’t remember the two operators in this photo but I can remember others on the team like it was yesterday: Larry Graham, Bob Bearden, Frank Kindrick, Ed Atherton. Good people, all of them. It was a busy time…we were working towards Q1, preparing for the initial Explorer launch, and building 87 (!) Rangers and Bronco II’s per hour.

Mementos Steve Beeler ISO 9001 Pocket Guide

After all the plants were through Q1, the next stretch was ISO 9001. Somebody convinced Alex Trotman that ISO 9001 registration was a perfect fit for his “Ford 2000” global reorganization. A letter was signed and the two-year clock started ticking.

I found myself on a very capable team responsible for the initial registration of 31 North American stamping and assembly plants. Project management? This was it.

A big challenge (and there were many) was communication. How to get one message to tens of thousands of employees?

Building on lessons learned at Oakville Assembly Plant’s single site ISO 9002 registration, Julie Trosen designed a pocket guide. I wrote the content, a “Cliff’s Notes” version of the Vehicle Operations quality manual. Don Riker sold the concept to senior leadership. Carlos Filio translated it into Spanish for our Mexican plants. A PO was approved for 100,000 pocket guides.

The story continues. One by one, other Ford activities adopted the pocket guide…and soon it was global! I found nine versions in a hanging file. I am sure there were more.

And the 31 plants were registered in only 21 months…whew!

Great mementos, to be sure.

COVID-19 Toolkit

April 20, 2020 by stevebeeler

“Adapt or perish.” This H.G. Wells quote captures perfectly today’s business environment. So much has changed so quickly. COVID-19 is affecting everything, everybody, everywhere. From six of my blog posts, here is a post COVID-19 toolkit to adapt your business to today’s new operational challenges:

SQDCME. There is just so much to do. When things are hectic, SQDCME prioritizes competing objectives and provides focus on the vital few: Safety, Quality, Delivery, Cost, Morale, and Environment.

Managing by Walking Around Quality Audit. People have changed seats. Many are now working from home. In just ten questions, you can quickly verify that your quality system is still functioning.

Business Process Mapping. Business processes are being re-engineered for a suddenly remote world. Process mapping answers questions about what actually happens inside your company. As such, it is an excellent tool for designing robust processes and communicating changes.

5-Step Throughput Improvement Model. Customer order patterns have changed and your internal operational constraints have moved. Here’s a quick refresher on Theory of Constraints and Goldratt’s 5-step throughput improvement model…how to find and break bottlenecks.

Sales Funnel. Is your constraint now outside the four walls of your plant? This blog combines business process mapping, Theory of Constraints, and Lean Thinking to improve the throughput of your sales funnel.

8D Team Oriented Problem Solving. An 8D is a simple but structured problem solving method that reinforces team work, encourages a bias for action, and delivers robust and permanent solutions across organizational boundaries.

Six great tools and methods to better equip you and your team for post COVID-19 challenges. Please feel welcome to put them to use. Adapt, don’t perish. 🙂

Pro Bono Help

The COVID-19 business contraction feels more severe than the credit crunch ten plus years ago. For me, that likely means not much in the way of new projects for the next six months or longer.

I will be fine. The kids are through college and my retirement is funded. But for those who work to provide for their families, the ramifications of COVID-19 are unthinkable.

Need some help with this post COVID-19 toolkit? Don’t hesitate to reach out.

Pro bono, I am offering my time to those struggling operationally to get their businesses going again. Quality, delivery, and cost solutions. Business processes for a newly remote world. Project management. A fresh eyes look. There is no reason for me to be sitting at home while small businesses are going under and jobs are disappearing.

If you are a neighbor along the Lake Michigan shoreline, here’s the link to the Michigan West Coast Chamber of Commerce COVID-19 Business Toolkit for government agency contacts, general business resources, best practices, etc.

Stay safe!

Steve Beeler